Rain will mix with snow Wednesday with an inch of snow possible by Wednesday night, the National Weather Service in Duluth reported late Tuesday afternoon.
Kevin Kraujalis, meteorologist with the weather service, said an earlier forecast calling for 3 inches of snow had changed as temperatures are expected to stay above freezing, meaning more rain than snow.
"Most of what will fall will accumulate on grassy surfaces," Kraujalis said. "We don't expect anything to accumulate on roadways. The soil temperatures are still too warm.
"In Brainerd, it will be more of a nuisance, a little precursor of things to come."
A nuisance and a bit of a rarity in that it will be the second accumulating snowfall - albeit minor accumulation - in October.
"They might be rare but they're not unheard of," said Mark Mortensen, program forester with the DNR office in Brainerd, which keeps weather statistics. "We actually average about 2.5 inches of snow during the month of October."
What's unusual, Mortensen said, is when October snow sticks around for more than a day or two, like the Oct. 12 snowfall did.
What snow falls Wednesday probably will be gone Thursday as the forecast calls for partly sunny skies and high temperatures 42 to 47 degrees. More of the same is expected Friday, with the forecast calling for partly sunny and high temps 40 to 45 degrees.
Early snow doesn't necessarily mean it will be a harsh winter, the National Weather Service in Duluth reported.
The weather service, citing information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, reported the average northern Minnesota temperature of the coming winter is expected to be above normal.
Much of Climate Prediction Center's winter outlook is based on the fact that the current El Nino pattern in the South Pacific is expected to reach a moderate level this winter, the weather service said.
In the past 15 El Nino winters, the average winter temperature at the Duluth airport has been 2.9 degrees above normal and at International Falls the average has been 1.6 degrees above normal.
MATT ERICKSON may be reached at matt.erickson@brainerddispatch.com or 855-5857.
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