A little relief headed our way
Respite from the extreme cold should be just around the corner. All you have to do is get through Friday.
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After a four-day string of sun-filled but bitterly cold days where the thermometer flirted with 30 degrees below zero - and actually eclipsed that mark Sunday by hitting 32 degrees below zero - Wednesday offered a slight change of pace with a low temperature of 6 degrees below zero and a high temperature of 13 degrees.
An adult pair of swans escorted their young in the Gull River Wednesday near the Corps of Engineers Dam in East Gull Lake. The river near the dam stays ice-free throughout the winter, giving the swans an area to feed. Brainerd Dispatch/Steve Kohls» Purchase reprints of this photo.
The National Weather Service in Duluth reported Arctic air has resulted in temperatures 20 degrees below normal, which usually range from lows just below zero to highs of about 20 degrees above zero at this time of year.
That could again be the theme for Thursday and Friday. Only this time the cold will be accompanied by wind.
"The big thing for our area is going to be, even though we won't see the coldest temperatures in the region, the likelihood to keep wind overnight is better and so it's a better threat for critical wind chill values," said Amanda Graning, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth. "Even with temperatures in the minus teens, that wind chill value can plummet quickly."
The weather service's forecast called for high temps 0 to 5 degrees Thursday, 13 degrees below to 18 degrees below Thursday night, 2 degrees below to 3 degrees above Friday with wind chill readings 25 degrees below to 35 degrees below, and lows 17 degrees below to 22 degrees below Friday night.
Low temperatures 20 degrees below zero are common in the Brainerd area - there's usually a dozen or more of such days each winter.
But temps of at least 30 degrees below zero? That's more of a rarity. In fact, according to records kept by the Minnesota State Climatology office, there have been eight such days since 2000, the most recent being Sunday. The lowest temperature recorded in that span was 37 degrees below zero on Jan. 18, 2005.
In contrast, there were 31 days from 1990 through 1999 that reached at least 30 degrees below zero, according to the State Climatology office's records, including lows of 52 degrees below zero on Feb. 1, 1996, and a Brainerd record low of 54 degrees below zero on Feb. 2, 1996.
"When I was in college in St. Cloud, the cold wasn't extraordinary until it reached 30 below," said Pete Boulay, assistant state climatologist with the Minnesota State Climatology office. "And you really felt it when it hit 40 below, especially since my car wouldn't start."
Motorists heading northbound on Highway 371 are reminded of the seasonal change to winter with a banner on the Madden's Resort's billboard Wednesday. Brainerd Dispatch/Steve Kohls» Purchase reprints of this photo.
The cold spell hitting Minnesota is also affecting most of the country, especially hard in the southeastern United States, Boulay said.
However, Boulay pointed to a report from the Climate Predication Center that shows while temperatures in the southeast U.S. are expected to remain below average through Jan. 20, temperatures in the Brainerd area will be above average.
"At least the cold here looks to be short-lived, that's the good thing," Boulay said. "But so far, we definitely have not had a normal January."
According to the weather service's forecast, high temps could be 8 to 13 degrees Saturday, 18 to 23 degrees Sunday and 22 to 27 degrees Monday and Tuesday.
"I would say the warming trend will continue through next week," Graning said.
The National Weather Service in November forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country because of an El Nino system in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The three-month outlook for December, January and February show a higher probability for a winter with above normal temperatures.
While temperatures the first six days of January have been well below normal, Boulay noted despite a "roller coaster ride" for December weather, the month's temperatures averaged out close to normal. He said with warmer weather coming, January could wind up close to normal, too.
"Maybe a shot at a January thaw might be in the cards," Boulay said.
Graning said the El Nino pattern continues and warmer-than-average temperatures are still expected this winter.
"These cold outbreaks don't change the overall forecast that much," Graning said.
MATT ERICKSON may be reached at matt.erickson@brainerddispatch.com or 855-5857.