Republicans and Democrats spent last summer battling how best to save $2.1 trillion over the next decade. They are spending this summer battling how best to not save $2.1 trillion over the next decade.
In the course of that year, the U.S. government’s fiscal gap — the true measure of the nation’s indebtedness — rose by $11 trillion.
The fiscal gap is the present value difference between projected future spending and revenue. It captures all government liabilities, whether they are official obligations to service Treasury bonds or unofficial commitments, such as paying for food stamps or buying drones.
Some question whether “official” and “unofficial” spending commitments can be added together. But calling particular obligations “official” doesn’t make them economically more important. Indeed, the government would sooner renege on Chinese holding U.S. Treasuries than on Americans collecting Social Security, especially because the United States can print money and service its bonds with watered-down dollars.
For its part, economic theory sees through labels and views a country’s official debt for what it is — a linguistic construct devoid of real economic content. In contrast, the fiscal gap is theoretically well-defined and invariant to the choice of labels. Each labeling choice changes the mix of obligations between official and unofficial, but leaves the total unchanged.
The U.S. fiscal gap, calculated (by us) using the Congressional Budget Office’s realistic long-term budget forecast - the Alternative Fiscal Scenario - is now $222 trillion. Last year, it was $211 trillion. The $11 trillion difference — this year’s true federal deficit — is 10 times larger than the official deficit and roughly as large as the entire stock of official debt in public hands.
This fantastic and dangerous growth in the fiscal gap is not new. In 2003 and 2004, the economists Alan Auerbach and William Gale extended the CBO’s short-term forecast and measured fiscal gaps of $60 trillion and $86 trillion, respectively. In 2007, the first year the CBO produced the Alternative Fiscal Scenario, the gap, by our reckoning, stood at $175 trillion. By 2009, when the CBO began reporting the AFS annually, the gap was $184 trillion. In 2010, it was $202 trillion, followed by $211 trillion in 2011 and $222 trillion in 2012.
Part of the fiscal gap’s growth reflects changes in policy, such as the Bush and Obama tax cuts, the introduction of Medicare Part D, and the expansion of defense spending. Part reflects “natural” growth of existing programs, including growth in Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates. And part reflects the demographic time bomb U.S. politicians are blithely ignoring.
When fully retired, 78 million baby boomers will collect, on average, more than 85 percent of per-capita gross domestic product ($40,000 in today’s dollars) in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits. Each passing year brings these outlays one year closer, which raises their present value.
Governments, like households, can’t indefinitely spend beyond their means. They have to satisfy what economists call their “intertemporal budget constraint.” The fiscal gap simply measures the extent to which this constraint is violated and tells us what is needed to balance the government’s intertemporal budget.
The answer for the U.S. isn’t pretty. Closing the gap using taxes requires an immediate and permanent 64 percent increase in all federal taxes. Alternatively, the U.S. needs to cut, immediately and permanently, all federal purchases and transfer payments, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, by 40 percent. Or it can mix these terrible fiscal medicines with honey, namely radical fiscal reforms that make the economy much fairer and far stronger. What the government can’t do is pay its bills by spending more and taxing less. America’s children, whose futures are being rapidly destroyed, are smart enough to tell us this.
Laurence Kotlikoff, an economist at Boston University, and Scott Burns, a syndicated columnist, are co-authors of “The Clash of Generations.”



Comments (14)
Add commentDenton
Talk about blinking. Is the paper trying to mess with old peoples minds?? Todays comics are the same as fridays.
Thought I was having dejavu.
WHY DON'T YOU CARE?
I don't get why people aren't more concerned about the
debt. Why are people content to pass it on to future generations? Puzzling.
People do care
But Congress needs to quit protecting their "pet" projects to get votes. And cut Defense spending which is about a cajillion times more than the next 100 countries in the entire world. Even a four year break on adding more unneeded weaponry would be a step towards solvency.
In fact, we have so many ships patrolling the world, they are bumping into other ships.
I stand corrected.
So a Panamanian-Flagged, Japanese owned tanker
is one of our many ships that ran into our destroyer?
More misinformation spread by the leftists.
Cutting defense spending to zero...
...besides being reckless, would not solve our current economic problems. Check out this chart of the breakdown of federal spending:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2010.svg
You will notice that Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the debt were about 50% of all federal spending as of 2010.
Could we find places to cut waste in the military? I'm sure we could, but don't think for a minute that you could cut it all without feeling a massive aftershock from the retired military personnel who depend on military benefits for their livelihood, to the VA hospitals, to the military contractors, etc. It would create massive unemployment and economic chaos, as well as leaving us wide open to military risks.
Maybe we could cut that drone program that targets American citizens, though...
All cuts hurt
But they should be across the board. Defense doesn't need a pass on them. Fine, bye bye drones. Just do it!
So you would support cutting the Federal education budget...
...and entitlement programs, I'm taking it? Well good for you, Southie. At least you are being consistent in your fiscal conservatism.
Cut 'em all!
Not that anyone in Congress is listening.
But don't single out a few budget items that only hurt the ones with no lobbyists speaking for them.
Raise the income limit for Medicare, too. And restore any funds that have been "borrowed".
Seems to me that the only person stealing from Medicare...
...at the moment is Obama to fund Obamacare--and old folks do have plenty of lobbyists speaking for them so I don't quite know what to make of that other than people aren't paying attention.
As eyolf would say:
southie says "I got Mine". And I'm sure eyolf also has his.
Republican looting of Medicare/ Social Security trust Fund
The surplus revenue from the 1983 payroll tax increase was given by Reagan directly to the Super Rich in the form of income tax cuts. It's time for them to pay it back. End Welfare for the wealthy
What's with you and Meuhl and the alcohol
references? Do you need an intervention? Are you calling out for help? Are you trying to forget Ryan?
We have the solutions
If you want to fix our broken budget. Switch to 100% public financing of elections.
If you want to reduce waste and corruption. Switch to 100% public financing of elections.
If you want to fix climate change, food shortages, and all the other long term crises that are roaring down on us. Switch to 100% public financing of elections.
Both President Obama and his
Both President Obama and his Republican challenger for the White House, Mitt Romney, have talked about the importance of taming deficits and the debt. Where Mr. Obama emphasizes a call for the rich to pay more in taxes, coupled with spending cuts, Mr. Romney argues generally that taxes shouldn't go up for anyone. Thus, his approach would rely on deeper cuts in federal spending. Many economists say that in theory, either approach could help improve America's fiscal position. In practice, however, Washington has had a poor track record on fiscal discipline in recent years. Some forecasters worry that Democrats would leave government spending too large, hindering growth, while Republicans might do the same or deepen deficits through tax breaks that outstrip spending cuts.
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