President Ahmadinejad announced Wednesday that Iran is mastering the entire nuclear fuel cycle. That mastery includes mining, processing, enriching, and fabricating fuel from uranium for a nuclear power plant such as the one at Bushehr in Iran. We are unlikely to hear about Iran’s other nuclear objective — producing a nuclear weapon which can be a payload on Iran’s Shahab-3 medium range ballistic missile.
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is charged with reporting on Iran’s compliance with its nuclear Safeguards Agreement to the UN Security Council. The IAEA’s latest report has information from various sources which suggests clandestine progress in Iran on the technology required for development and delivery of a nuclear weapon. The specific weapons technology includes work on explosives; enrichment; formation of spherical uranium metal; exploding bridge wire detonators; neutron sources; and re-engineering the payload chamber of the Shahab-3 missile.
To understand Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions, we need to return to 1953 which saw both the installation of Shah Reza Pahlavi in Iran and the launching by President Eisenhower of the Atoms for Peace program. Under Atoms for Peace, the Shah established the Tehran Nuclear Research Center with a U.S. supplied 5 megawatt nuclear research reactor.
Iran has oil revenues, and U.S. and European companies rushed to do nuclear business with the Shah’s Iran. A Siemens led group contracted to build a $5 billion dollar nuclear power plant at Bushehr. Iran lent $1.1 billion for a 10 percent share of Eurodif, a uranium enrichment plant in France, jointly owned by France, Belgium, Spain and Sweden. Iran financed a nuclear cooperation agreement with South Africa in return for supplies of enriched uranium fuel from South Africa and Namibia.
President Gerald Ford signed a directive offering Teheran the chance to buy and operate a U.S.-built reprocessing facility for the complete ‘nuclear fuel cycle’, including extracting plutonium from nuclear reactor fuel. The Ford strategy paper said the “introduction of nuclear power will both provide for the growing needs of Iran’s economy and free remaining oil reserves for export or conversion to petrochemicals.”
The Shah approved plans to construct, with U.S. help, up to 23 nuclear power plants by 2000. The Shah echoed President Ford’s theme saying, “Petroleum is a noble material, much too valuable to burn. We envision producing, as soon as possible, 23,000 megawatts of electricity using nuclear plants.”
In 1979, the overthrow of the Shah and the occupation of the U.S. embassy ended U.S. and most European cooperation with Iran’s nuclear program. German companies withdrew from the Bushehr project which was more than half complete, and for which they had received at least $2.5 billion. Eurodif did not supply Iran with any enriched uranium.
Iran’s nuclear program stalled during the Iran/Iraq War which ended in 1988. Iran then began seeking other partners for its nuclear ambitions. Russia formed a joint effort with Iran, called Persepolis, which provided Iran with nuclear experts and technology. In 1995, Iran contracted with Russia to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant. Most other potential partners were discouraged by aggressive US objections.
Iran was also a beneficiary of Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear weapons sharing network which included Libya and North Korea. With centrifuge technology from this network
Iran was able to build large uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow; neither was disclosed in advance to the IAEA as required by the Safeguards Agreement.
The November 2011 report to the UN Security Council by the IAEA Director General states that Iran is obligated by Security Council resolution to cooperate with the IAEA on all issues which give rise to concerns about military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program. Since August 2008, the report states, Iran has not engaged with the Agency in any substantive way on this matter. The Agency is therefore unable to provide credible assurance that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.
Israel is about 900 miles from Iran. The Shahab missiles have an effective range of well over 1,000 miles.
ROLF WESTGARD is a Deerwood resident and a professional member, Geological Society of America and the American Nuclear Society. He recently taught the class “Nuclear Energy; past, present, and future” for the University of Minnesota Lifelong Learning program.



Comments (20)
Add commentIt's all about M.A.D.
The fact that Iran may acquire a nuclear weapon doesn't mean that they will use it. It's the reason that no one has since Nagasaki. It's called mutually assured destruction(MAD).
One US nuclear sub with Trident missiles could return the country of Iran to the Stone Age. Not to mention a response from nuclear armed Israel.
Rolf
A couple uneducated questions. Do the Iranians have the capability to determine if a missile originated in Israel or from a Trident?
What kind of structure would be needed to protect the Mullahs from a blast?
Tough questions
The Iranians have a lot of Russian radar equipment & I would guess they could tell the difference, but they would not have much time to do it.
As to protection, the warheads from our missiles(and I assume Israel) are 15 to 20 times more potent than ones dropped on Japan(about 500 kt). The only escape would be very deep in the ground.
Well I'll be
Had the paper all day Rolf & just noticed your article. I have been waiting because I had daughter take Carnac off & I had him on there just for you. He still had the best saying about your buddy Jimmy Carter(hurts me just to type that) His answer was yes & no/ pro &con/ for & against. The question describe Carter (& can I throw obama in there) on 3 major policy issues. I remember watching it & laughing so hard. Hope you seen last comment on war drums. Still kidding.
If it's good
If it's good for Iran, Obama will be for it to insure peace and safety for Israel.
Wrong Rolflindy
Little Boy was 15 kilotons and Fatman was 21 Kilotons
Very good, itter ditter
And the W88 warheads for the Trident are about 475 kt or 20 to 30 times the bombs dropped on Japan. You need to ask questions to learn things.
Rolf
Add to that, Iran has not
Add to that, Iran has not attacked anyone in what? 300 years?
Sorry mav
Sorry mav, but supplying Iranian explosives and such to terrorists for use against Americans and other in Iraq are attacks that have been going on for years.
Mav
What about the Iran/Iraq war? Were they hapless victims of a ruthless Iraqi regime? I haven't actually studied it so I couldn't say who was the perpetrator so I am curious.
Two Options
President Ahmadinejad of Iran has two options regarding his nuclear ambitions. 1) Continue working towards gaining a nuclear weapons arsenal. 2) Play nice with the US and give up his weapons program.
Leaders of other countries have chosen both options in recent years.
First, North Korea ignored the West and created nuclear weapons. Since their first nuclear test the United States has worked towards normalizing relations including increased foreign aid and the removal of North Korea from the 'State Sponsor of Terrorism' list.
On the flip side, Libya played ball with the United States. Their leadership gave up aspirations for nuclear weapons and handed pretty much everything over the the United States government. Since handing over all nuclear related material the United States backed an insurgency to remove their executive from office. Not only was the executive removed from office, but he was tortured and murdered in the street in broad daylight and broadcast internationally for the world to see. No charges have been filed.
I'm curious to see which direction President Ahmadinejad goes.
Be exact Rolf
I don't need to ask you any questions to learn things.....15 times 15 is 225, 20 times 21 is 420.....you were off by some kilotons...get your math right
helping itter
The 500 mt referred to our warheads, not the bombs dropped on Japan. I teach classes on the subject. Rolf
Rolf, I beg to differ.
You said, "As to protection, the warheads from our missiles(and I assume Israel) are 15 to 20 times more potent than ones dropped on Japan(about 500 kt). " You never mentioned megatons.
Potency isn't the number of warheads. Even your teaching is suspect at times. I am glad I could help you out, Sir.
Rolf, look at your post
Your original post said a Trident warhead had a yield of 500 kilotons, which you said was 15 to 20 times more powerful than the ones dropped on Japan.
500 kilotons is 23.8 times more powerful than Fatman and 33.3 times more powerful than Little Boy. Your 1st post made it sound like you didn't know the exact yield of the 2 WWII a-bombs. A good teacher would say "I stand corrected".
Plus, your last post said megatons, which is EXACTLY a 1000 times more powerful than a kiloton.
rolf
What point are you attempting to make with this submission?
rolf is never wrong and always right
rolf is never wrong and always right, just ask him he will tell you...when you flaw information and you are on the left it is called broadening our horizons, when you do it from the right, you are called an idiot.
Get used to this thought process, that is how it works
My mistakes
I said mt when I should have said kt. I should have said 25 to 30 times instead of 15 to 20 times. I stand corrected.
Rolf
Another Rolf error
The original sentence which has you all excited is misleading as the(about 500 kt) should have been placed after the "warheads from our missiles" part of the sentence. The sentence is also misleading because each Trident carries multiple independent reentry warheads, so the total payload is much greater than 475kt.
Rolf
Parchin is Iran's implosion explosives site
Iran is blocking access to Parchin. That is where they test the explosives that compress the HEU or plutonium to a critical mass. It's a tricky process requiring lots of testing. N. Korea apparently hasn't quite mastered it.