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Is 7.8 Obama's October surprise or is it a gift from BLS donors?

Posted: October 7, 2012 - 5:26pm

Last Friday morning’s jobs report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is being met with skepticism. The report found that, from August to September, the unemployment rate dropped from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent. The Labor Department said Friday that employers added 114,000 jobs in September.

In fact, when Labor Secretary Hilda Solis appeared on CNBC this morning, the first two questions for her were whether the books have been cooked: Solis called the charges insulting and “ludicrous.”

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former economics adviser to John McCain and the former head the Congressional Budget Office, calls the numbers “implausible.”

“September unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent due to an extraordinary – but implausible – estimate of 873,000 jobs in household survey,” said Holtz-Eakin on Twitter.

And the Wall Street Journal warns that these numbers should be taken “with a grain of salt.”

Why would anyone question these statistics? Well, at least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, Md., has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long-and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?”

Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. According to his LinkedIn profile, Phillips served as an economist at BLS between June 2009 and July 2012. Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices.

Skeptics are wondering how a decline in the unemployment rate for September could be so different from the trend over the last few months. Some charge that is just a political slight of hand by the administration to “cook the books.”

I wonder if these numbers will be revised after the election or before, as has often been the case in the BLS reporting of the unemployed.

All of this politicking, if that’s what it is, could have something to do with the fact that no standing president has been elected with the unemployment rate above 8 percent.

Keith Hansen

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JohnnyJing
4970
Points
JohnnyJing 10/08/12 - 05:04 pm
6
4

Waiting for the facts from JB on record 29 year employment

James Bond is avoiding unemployment facts while calling everyone asking legitimate questions "stupid." So JB please teach us so we won't be stupid. Again please explain without using Democrat talking points.

JamesBond
5347
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JamesBond 10/08/12 - 05:26 pm
5
5

No, JJ You Tell Us

JJ you tell us about the BLS story since you imply you know something the rest of us do not. You think the BLS is avoiding some data in their calculations? Go on, I want you to "educate" us on your economic knowledge.

JamesBond
5347
Points
JamesBond 10/08/12 - 05:30 pm
5
6

Sadie Lives In Alternate Universe

Sadie I too watched Dr. Paul Krugman totally annihilate Mary Matalin with her statement about this being the worst recovery. So you believe a GOP spin doctor over a Nobel prize winning economist? You must be a citizen on that mountain Jon Stewart was talking about - your own world.

JamesBond
5347
Points
JamesBond 10/08/12 - 05:34 pm
5
5

Yep, Sadie You're Right, that stupid Nobel Prize

Yep, Sadie, that Nobel Price committee is such an embarrassment. Who do they think they are? Bunch of elitist eggheads, right? Probably a bunch of socialists since they are from Sweden, right?

muehlbau
19434
Points
muehlbau 10/08/12 - 06:01 pm
5
5

The Nobel Peace Prize has certainly become a joke...

...remember how Obama won before he had done anything? What a laugh riot!

sadiemarriedlady
23366
Points
sadiemarriedlady 10/08/12 - 06:02 pm
4
5

Bond

I'm writing from the alternate universe like you suggested.
I totally agree with JJ on the topic.
Nobel Fleece Prize fools everyone except the people with common sense.

Must return to my alternate universe and I love it.

Fair n Balanced
40535
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Fair n Balanced 10/08/12 - 06:23 pm
5
5
pickle
14228
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pickle 10/08/12 - 10:24 pm
6
5

Hey J.B.

Even if 7.8% is right that is where it was when Obama (teflon) took office. SO in 3 years & 10 months we are back to where we started at & that is good??? ( of course you won't answer the ? ) IF YOU & OTHER PEOPLE GIVE HIM 4 MORE YEARS THERE WILL BE NO MORE MIDDLE CLASS.

ProudRINO
3024
Points
ProudRINO 10/09/12 - 08:27 am
4
5

Cub foods and Pizza Ranch

Are advertisers on Foxy Keith's page today. Only way to combat this troubling trend with our local paper migrating to extreme partisanship is to hit their advertisers!

This is yet another example.

There's no question this was an eye opener of an issue. But the media was almost immediately flooded with multiple sources including sound rationale as to why books couldn't possibly have been cooked here.

One of the best I saw pointed out the fact that this data is collected by thousands of people, civil servants whose jobs are not beholden to partisan demands, and that even the most crooked of past administrations were unable to use their clout to get them to produce favorable numbers at critical election times. Richard Nixon's administration was used as one example, probably the only modern one that really did attempt to browbeat and threaten civil servants to cook the books in their favor. And they didn't even for Nixon!

sadiemarriedlady
23366
Points
sadiemarriedlady 10/09/12 - 09:17 am
4
4

proud

Shame on you for suggesting to hit the local advertisers.
for one thing, they probably don't have a choice where the ad is placed. You obviously don't believe in the ole free speech and the right for a business to operate.

It is suspious that the economists are Obama donors.
The household survey is a small sample and really just showed part time jobs.

People are sure getting shook up over the suggestion that something is fishy. Whether it is or not, it seems to be ok for all of Obama surrogates to call Mr. Romney a liar.

JamesBond
5347
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JamesBond 10/09/12 - 10:19 am
3
4

Good is Bad, Bad is Good

Why is it that when the BLS came out with numbers earlier in Obama's administration Fox News used those numbers for evidence, but when the BLS comes out with numbers now that are good for the administration, they are not to be believed?

Hmmm.....suspicious....just asking.

Pickle, is the CAPITALIZATION meant for emphasis? Are you mad? I guess you did not live thru the 2008 recession that caused our problems and now you want to return to those same policies again? After 4 years of Romney/Ryan the middle class will only be a memory. After all 8 years of Bush/Cheney started our problems, now 4+ years of Romney/Ryan will finish the job. Thanks for your support.

pickle
14228
Points
pickle 10/09/12 - 11:01 am
6
2

jb

yes you are right for the first time today (attaboy). I'm angry (when you spoiled childern tell us how to live and take our money) I'ts plain too see you didn't live in the early 1980's when things were truely bad! Double digit unemployment and inflation. I'ts also plain to see you either don't work, or you are government , Union worker because they are the last to realize how bad things are. The real working people are paying almost $4.00 an hour for health ins. because Obama made it affordable. And it's going up.

JamesBond
5347
Points
JamesBond 10/09/12 - 11:16 am
2
7

Pickle

Take our money? Didn't you get a tax cut from Obama? And, you don't like to pay for police/fire/schools/roads/sewers/etc. that we need? Do you know that America's wealthy are paying less in taxes in over 50 years? Get the facts and maybe then you will find out to whom you should really direct your anger.

Who is telling you how to live? Give us an example of that. What liberties have you lost? I really want to know.

I remember when the stock market was 1/2 what it is today. I remember when the banks were about to collapse. I remember when GM/Chrysler were on the brink of bankruptcy. I remember when Sec. Paulson called an emergency meeting at the Treasury. And I remember when Osama bin Laden was still alive in Afghanistan. Are you better off than you were 4 years ago? I do not know, but as a country we are definitely better off than we were 4 years ago.

truman
264
Points
truman 10/09/12 - 11:58 am
5
2

Better off per JB

"but as a country we are definitely better off than we were 4 years ago".

Hmm, as a country we are now over 16 trillion dollars in debt, I'm not so sure that's being better off.

pickle
14228
Points
pickle 10/09/12 - 12:07 pm
7
2

jb

yes you are right i see the error of my ways please almighty demo(c)rat forgive me. yes more people on food stamp,more people on government assitance than in the history of the U.S.A. average income is down to the lowest level in years. AS for you're ? in order (something the left doesn't do )1 yes #2 no I got one from Bush.#3 yes i don't mind payin for things we need we don't need the woods paved (trail) the airport what 1million $ to take out a runway? fancy school building that is not effeicnt.#4 I can't speak for the wealthy but the working person i'm payin over 50 % you demo don't count property , gas , sales, state, federal, phone, ect. taxes. #5 the government is telling us how to live. You want to drive Lic., Car reg. & ins. Safety belt ect. Own a house want to reshingle it you need a permit , pay a gover. official to inspect the roof sheeting. You want a garden ask the city first & get a permit ( you can only move 10 cubic feet of dirt (2 wheel barrows)in your life time w/o one)you want me to keep going on? #6 see #5 the stock market crashed as soon as Obama was elected in middle of nov. get you're facts straight P.s what about the early 80's

JamesBond
5347
Points
JamesBond 10/09/12 - 12:21 pm
2
7

What Have Your Republican Friends Done For You?

Please tell me o' wise ones what the Republicans have done for you? Did they cooperate with Obama with his jobs bill? No. Have they done anything but obstruct this administration to move policies forward? No. Every single attempt to move this country forward has been met with NO NO NO and NO again. Please tell me one thing they have done for the betterment of this country. Name just one.

And to you Pickle - those list of things the government requires of you. How many of those are Obama's fault?

You guys can vote again for your Republican pals, but what have they ever done for you other than take your vote?

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me!"

pickle
14228
Points
pickle 10/09/12 - 12:39 pm
4
3

jb also

I've watched my pay check (ask you're dad what that is ) have 30% taken out for years (fed. state medica s.s., health ins. ect.) now it's 50% ya thats alot better than 30%!! that is not counting property ,gas , phone, ect. taxes!!

pickle
14228
Points
pickle 10/09/12 - 12:50 pm
3
3

jb

Obama had 730 days of tottal control what did he do? as for the repul(I CAN) did for me kept my country safe (yes i served) let me make my own choices!! I don't ask people for things i get them from hard work. YOU still bhave not answerd my ? Why do you want things for free? Lazy? read my7 other posts to you and answer them. thankyou

JamesBond
5347
Points
JamesBond 10/09/12 - 01:00 pm
2
5

Our Debt and Miscellaneous

Truman, are you a trained economist? Are you using simple math to attribute to Obama any debt incurred starting on January 20, 2009? Simple math, simply incorrect.

Some facts:

1). President Obama started with a deficit of $1.2 trillion dollars. Unfortunately, it did not magically go to zero when Obama was sworn in. That was not his debt.

2). There were still two wars going on, in Iraq and in Afghanistan. Although he eventually ended most of the war spending in Iraq, that was not his debt.

3). The President inherited the Bush taxcuts for the first two years of his Administration. That was not his debt.

Now, to answer my question as to what the Republicans have done for us:

1). Two unfunded wars.
2). One unfunded prescription drug program.
3). Tax cuts for the wealthy.
4). Budget surplus to record deficits.
5). War on Women.
6). Voter suppression and discrimination.

Next?

1). War with Iran.
2). War with Syria.
3). More tax cuts...tax cuts...
4). No national health care.
5). No Medicare.
6). Ship jobs to China with tax incentives.
7). No environmental emphasis.

truman
264
Points
truman 10/09/12 - 05:14 pm
4
2

Debt per JB

#1 I forgot everything is Bush's fault.

#2 I did not think it took an economist to balance a checkbook, and this administration has a serious problem with that.

#3 Obama has never had a balanced budget since he has been in office, do you not think he shoulders that responsiblity?

Oh my mistake, see #1

Fair n Balanced
40535
Points
Fair n Balanced 10/09/12 - 07:35 pm
2
2

If the Obumbler get's

reelected he'll sure inherit a mess this time!

JohnnyJing
4970
Points
JohnnyJing 10/09/12 - 08:10 pm
3
1

JB is Kool-aid king

JB still waiting for your explanation of the 29 year record employment on a net gain of 1,000 job and despite the U6 stats staying the same ..

pickle
14228
Points
pickle 10/09/12 - 10:23 pm
2
1

jb

Why don't the left ,demo(c)RATS, answer the ?? I answered yours but you didn't answer mine .Is it that you can't think of a lie on you'r own so you stick to Obama's lies?

Bubba Yumbo
18805
Points
Bubba Yumbo 10/09/12 - 11:13 pm
1
2

Hey, J.B. -- only had time to read -- no time to

respond much now, except to point out (back on topic of Keith's piece) that the initial conspiracy theorist on this, Jack Welch, has been disavowed by anyone who matters in the thinking part of the repub. party.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/09/jack-welch-quits-fortune-reuters_n_1951781.html

Thanks for your good posts, 007. Keith H. is just trying to do his job, pathetic as it is, which is to keep these sites alive. Wow, what a person won't do to make a living!

Bubba Yumbo
18805
Points
Bubba Yumbo 10/10/12 - 01:14 am
1
1

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/09/jack-welch-quits-fortun

Some folks in Republican party (including the educated ones, sorry), think you're picking the wrong issue on this one, Mr. H. You make a fool of yourself when you bite on some of these things, Keith. I know, whatever pays the bills (at the Dispatch and at your house) by keeping the goofballs biting (and writing), right?

LibsAreWrong
104
Points
LibsAreWrong 10/11/12 - 12:10 pm
0
0

Democrats calling people Liars???

Democrats always seem to project what they are actually doing themselves onto Republicans. It's been that way for decades: the war on women, racism, voter fraud, the list goes on and on. Now it's coming out that Obama's thug administration didn't include California's numbers when they made the claim that the number dropped. In a word, "LIAR!". Enough of the lies, kick these dishonest thugs to the curb in November. America deserves better than lying leftists who think they're smarter and better than the rest of us. Jay-Z and Beyonce will have to party elsewhere but I'm sure they'll live.

Hansen1212
99
Points
Hansen1212 10/11/12 - 08:54 pm
0
0

Republican vs Democrat = puppet vs puppet

Wake up all you sheep! Both Romney and Obama are puppets to the banksters. Both are going to spend $ our country does not have and both are going to print fake $ our country does not have! Ron Paul was our only hope and since the media would never let that happen our country is going to poop! I am starting my stockpile now loading up on necessities. Imagine what the crime rates going to be like once all the people who live off the govt receive no more money/food/shelter from them? Scary scary! All I am saying is both Obama and Romney are going to spend way more $ than we possibly can afford and it's not even them they are puppets to the banksters. Every year the bundaberg meetings are held in secrecy and that is where they decide what path and direction they are going to take our country. They also set up plans for their next false flag terror operations they like to run in the upcoming year to persuade the mass population that unless we give up more freedoms to the govt we will be unsafe from terrorists. When in all reality they are the true terrorist! Google false flag terror operations and bundaberg meetings if u have no idea what I am talking about please! Ron Paul 2012!!!

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